US scientists have found a way to estimate the time of the next eruption of the dormant volcano in Yellowstone National Park from 10 months to 10 years beforehand. They promise it won’t be cataclysmic, yet its lava and ash could cause a volcanic winter.

A new Arizona State University research focused on past eruptions at Yellowstone volcano, with the most recent happening nearly 70,000 years ago, in order to learn more about the time when its sleep is over. The study on the supervolcano’s giant chamber of hot, partly molten rock was published on Wednesday in the journal Geology.

Petrologist Christy Till, a professor in ASU’s School of Earth and Space Exploration, and her colleagues combined the data on the volcano’s past with measurements obtained by NanoSIMS, an advanced chemical imaging instrument. It allowed a closer observation of magma crystals that enabled a calculation of the time period between magma’s reheating and the volcano’s eruption.

“We find that the last time Yellowstone erupted after sitting dormant for a long time, the eruption was triggered within 10 months of new magma moving into the base of the volcano, while other times it erupted closer to the 10 year mark,” Till said in the press-release.

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Question is will they bother to warn anyone, or keep mum for "national security" reasons?